On April 17, 2024, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) released its bi-annual World Economic Outlook (WEO) report titled “Steady But Slow: Resilience Amid Divergence (April 2024).” The IMF has raised India’s GDP growth forecast by 30 basis points to 6.8% for fiscal year 2025 (FY25) and retained the forecast for FY26 at 6.5%.
Key Highlights:
- India’s Growth Projections:
- FY25: GDP growth forecast raised to 6.8%.
- FY26: GDP growth retained at 6.5%.
- FY24: GDP grew by 7.8%, higher than the 6.7% predicted in January 2024.
- Consumer Price Inflation: Projected to decline from 5.4% in FY24 to 4.6% in FY25 and further to 4.2% in FY26.
Global Scenario:
- Global Growth:
- Estimated at 3.2% in 2023, projected to continue at the same pace in 2024 and 2025, up by 0.1% from the January 2024 WEO Update.
- The projection for global growth in 2024 and 2025 is below the historical (2000–19) annual average of 3.8%.
- Emerging and Developing Asia:
- Growth projected to fall from 5.6% in 2023 to 5.2% in 2024 and 4.9% in 2025.
- China’s GDP:
- Expected to decrease from 5.2% in 2023 to 4.6% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025.
Other Organizations’ Projections for India:
- Asian Development Bank (ADB): Increased growth projection to 7% for FY25, up from 6.7%.
- World Bank: Revised projection for FY25 to 6.6%, up from 6.4%.
- S&P Global: Raised India’s FY25 growth forecast to 6.8% in March 2024.
About International Monetary Fund (IMF):
- Managing Director: Kristalina Georgieva
- Member Nations: 190
- Headquarters: Washington D.C., United States
- Established: 1944
The IMF report highlights India’s robust economic performance, driven by increased domestic demand and a growing working-age population, contributing to its positive growth outlook despite global economic challenges.