Overview
The National Statistical Office (NSO), under the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI), has released the Second Advance Estimates (SAE) of National Income for FY 2023-24 and the Quarterly Estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the third quarter (Q3 FY24). Additionally, the NSO announced that Second Revised Estimates (SRE) will now be considered as Final Estimates, thereby reducing the number of GDP data releases from six to five annually.
Key Highlights from the Recent Estimates
- GDP Growth in Q3FY24:
- Real GDP: Estimated at Rs 43.72 lakh crore, marking an 8.4% growth from Rs 40.35 lakh crore in Q3FY23.
- GDP at Current Prices: Estimated at Rs 75.49 lakh crore, up 10.1% from Rs 68.58 lakh crore in Q3FY23.
- Sector Contributions: Significant growth driven by manufacturing, mining, quarrying, and construction sectors.
- SAE of National Income for FY24:
- Real GDP: Projected at Rs 172.90 lakh crore, up 7.6% from Rs 160.71 lakh crore in FY23 (First Revised Estimates).
- Nominal GDP: Forecasted at Rs 293.90 lakh crore, a 9.1% increase from Rs 269.50 lakh crore in FY23.
- Economic Projections:
- Overall FY24 Growth: The country’s growth rate for FY24 is pegged at 7.6%.
- Past GDP Performance: Real GDP for FY23 was Rs 160.71 lakh crore, a 7% increase from FY22’s Rs 150.22 lakh crore.
- Nominal GDP Growth Rate: FY23 saw a growth of 14.2% in nominal GDP, down from 18.9% in FY22.
- Core Industry Performance:
- Index of Eight Core Industries: In January 2024, these industries saw a combined growth rate of 3.6% year-over-year.
- Fiscal Developments:
- Fiscal Deficit: From April 2023 to January 2024, the fiscal deficit reached Rs 11.03 lakh crore, which is 63.6% of the FY24 target.
- Future Data Releases:
- Upcoming GDP Estimates: The next quarterly GDP estimates for Q4 FY24 and the Provisional Estimates of National Income for FY24 will be released on May 31, 2024.
Related Developments
- Urban Unemployment Rate: According to the NSO’s Periodic Labour Force Survey for Q3FY24, the urban unemployment rate dropped to 6.5%, the lowest in over four years.
- Q1FY24 GDP Growth: India’s GDP grew at a one-year high of 7.8% in Q1FY24, compared to 6.1% in Q4FY23.
Institutional Framework
- Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation:
- Minister of State (Independent Charge): Rao Inderjit Singh
- Secretary: Dr. G P Samanta
Conclusion
These updates highlight a robust economic performance with significant contributions from key industrial sectors, underpinning the government’s efforts to enhance transparency and accuracy in economic data reporting. The shift in considering the SRE as the final estimate is part of NSO’s strategic move to streamline its statistical operations and data dissemination practices.
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