India’s Population Peak
According to the United Nations (UN) World Population Prospects report released recently, India’s population is projected to peak at 1.701 billion in 2062, giving the country 38 years before it reaches this mark. The report indicates that after peaking, India’s population will begin to decline, with a notable decrease starting between January and July of 2062. That year, India is expected to add 222,000 people to its population before the decline begins. By 2063, the population will decrease by approximately 115,000, with further declines of 437,000 in 2064 and 793,000 in 2065.
Current Population Status
India is currently the most populous country in the world, with a population of 1.451 billion, surpassing China, which has a population of 1.419 billion. The United States follows with a population of 345 million. The report suggests that India will remain the most populous country until the end of the century. By 2054, while India and China will retain their positions, Pakistan is projected to surpass the United States, becoming the third most populous country with 389 million people.
Global Population Trends
The UN report also provides insights into global population trends. The world population is expected to reach its peak at 10.2 billion in 2083, after which it will begin to decline. Currently, the global population stands at around 8.16 billion. Between 2024 and 2054, countries in Africa, such as Angola, the Central African Republic, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, and Somalia, are expected to experience rapid population growth, with their populations doubling during this period.
Demographic Dividend and Aging Population
The report highlights that in around 100 countries, including India, the share of the population in working ages (between 20 and 64 years) will continue to increase more rapidly than the total population until 2054. This presents a demographic dividend, offering a window of opportunity for economic growth. However, by 2080, people aged above 65 years are expected to outnumber those under 18 years, posing challenges for aging populations.
Fertility Trends and Challenges
Globally, fertility rates have declined significantly since 1990, with women having one child fewer on average. In more than half of all countries, the average number of live births per woman is below 2.1, the level required for population stability without migration. Countries such as China, Italy, the Republic of Korea, and Spain have “ultra-low” fertility rates, with fewer than 1.4 live births per woman.
India is among the 126 countries in the intermediate stage of demographic transition, where fertility levels have started to decline but remain above the replacement level. Fertility rates above replacement are projected to contribute over one-fifth of the population increase in countries expected to grow through 2054.
Child Mortality and Environmental Challenges
The report notes a significant reduction in child mortality, with child deaths under age 5 dropping below 5 million for the first time in 2023. Despite this achievement, high levels of preventable child mortality persist, particularly in 126 countries, including India, Nigeria, Pakistan, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
As most rapidly growing countries, including India, are low-income with minimal consumption of resources and greenhouse gas emissions, navigating the balance between environmental impacts and the needs of growing populations will be a critical challenge. The economic processes that lead to higher living standards often result in environmental damage, making this balance even more crucial.
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