WTO Report Projects Global Trade Growth Amidst Challenges

Introduction: The “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics: April 2024” report by the World Trade Organization (WTO) projects a rebound in global merchandise trade volume with growth expected at 2.6% in 2024 and 3.3% in 2025. This follows a contraction in 2023 influenced by regional conflicts, geopolitical tensions, and economic policy uncertainty.

Key Findings:

• 2023 Projections: In October 2023, WTO projected a 0.8% growth in world merchandise trade volume for the year.
• Decline in 2023: High energy prices and inflation led to a 1.2% decline in world merchandise trade volume for 2023.
• Trade Value: World merchandise trade fell 5% in value to USD 24.01 trillion in 2023, while commercial services trade increased by 9% to USD 7.54 trillion.
• Commodity Prices: Falling prices for commodities such as oil and gas contributed to the decline in merchandise exports.

Country-Specific Data:

• Decline in Exports (2023):
  • Russia: -28%
  • China: -5%
  • Japan: -4%
  • Republic of Korea: -8%
  • USA: -2%
  • Germany: +1%
  • Mexico: +3%
• European Union (EU):
  • Overall growth: +2%
  • Intra-EU trade: -1%
• Increase in Imports:
  • UAE: +7%
  • Russia: +10%
  • Saudi Arabia: +11%

India-Specific Insights:

• Merchandise Exports: USD 432 billion in 2023, a 5% decrease from 2022.
• Imports: Fell 7% to USD 673 billion in 2023.
• FY23 Goods Export: USD 451 billion, with USD 394.99 billion in April-February FY24.
• Global Share (2023):
  • Goods Exports: 1.8%
  • Imports: 2.8%
  • Digitally Delivered Services: Increased to 6% from 4.4% in 2019.
• Commercial Services:
  • Exports: 4.4% share at USD 344 billion, up 11% year-on-year.
  • Imports: Flat at USD 247 billion.

About WTO:

• Director-General: Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala
• Headquarters: Geneva, Switzerland
• Member Nations: 164
• Established: 1995

Conclusion: The WTO’s “Global Trade Outlook and Statistics: April 2024” report highlights a complex global trade environment with mixed performance across different regions and sectors. While challenges persist, particularly from geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainties, there are also areas of growth, especially in commercial services and specific economies like the UAE, Russia, and Saudi Arabia. India’s trade performance reflects both the global challenges and opportunities in digitization and services trade.